Evolution Gaming - against the odds

[dirtystack]

7 hours ago, Stevej said:

Again this @dirtystack idiot joining here to spam without any real clever comments.

I think it's quite interesting topic, and most of us are probably the A-class customers for casinos. I'd like to hear some comments from @Evolution Gaming Official. They haven't commented anything here. Could they tell more details about these wheel games, how they work etc? When is the open doors -day in Latvian studio?

Idiot?

Bitch please; Squaring your IQ wouldn't even get it near mine.

 

 

Edited 29 April, 2021 by dirtystack

[dirtystack]

Was trying to post on my phone and uploaded the wrong picture then proceeded to quote myself when trying to fix it. Had to delete: same post is below.

 

 

Edited 29 April, 2021 by dirtystack

[dirtystack]

@Stevejyou often use the argument that it is so statistically improbable to go 450+ spins without a crazytime that it must be rigged - usually accompanied by some faulty maths. It took a couple of minutes, wasn’t clicking fast as I was scanning for crazytime, to get this:

That represents 592 spins since the last Crazytime. I had stopped there as I thought it was enough to make my point. As I was making this posts I remembered I still hadn’t hit a Crazytime - so I went back and did another spin - that is why the time is 10 minutes later in the next picture here:

That’s another 199 spins before the next Crazytime - that takes us to 791 spins between crazy times in this little programme that you “trust”

If this happened in the actual game you would be using it as proof that it is rigged.

There is a lesson in all of this about confirmation bias and only interpreting the stats you want to see. This post is a direct contradiction to the belief you have that you are in anyway capable of analysing anything and coming to any kind of reasonable conclusion. 

You ain’t.
 

Edited 29 April, 2021 by dirtystack
There is double times on the pictures because for some reason it wouldn't let me upload the screenshots but would allow me to upload screenshots of the screenshots.

[Stevej]

@dirtystack Okey nice. Put some lottery on...

I actually ran few rng’s today. Crazy Time has been spinning about 400k spins so far like someone mentioned. Over 300 spins between CTs happen approximately 30 times in those spins. There usually one-two over 400, and might get one over 500 but it’s really rare. Over 500 doesn’t happen every year.

Try it here. Click run on the upper left corner. Console on the right bottom corner shows the spin counts that go over 300 (you have to open the console to see the results). It's set for 400k wheel spins.

So with one click you simulate 400k spins (10-11months of the game play).

https://jsfiddle.net/hocw4x16/

Currently I'm watching the streamer playing on Crazy Time. It has again 244 spins between ct bonuses. Let's see where it goes. I don't still think it's an analog wheel.

Edited 29 April, 2021 by Stevej

[InTaKe]

!RIGGEDDDDD

[Stevej]

Yep. The scam continues running 24/7.

At least I won't put my money on there anymore.

 

[The Macho Man]

On 28/04/2021 at 06:02, jahoo said:

I believe more in regulators than your tiny, very subjective observations. Serious casino providers and regulators had discovered this long time ago and evolution gaming would be history. Why would they cheat? They are not the one loosing money if players are winning.

Im not saying my results are proof of anything just mentioning my success with what I believe is happening.

And I never mentioned they are cheating. I just think the top slot is controlled and they can control when big payouts happen like a slot machine.

[dirtystack]

3 hours ago, Stevej said:

Yep. The scam continues running 24/7.

At least I won't put my money on there anymore.

 

This happens often in http://crazyrng.infinityfreeapp.com/ 

Use your own app in the same kind of manner in which you address the actual games results. It happens often that you have 1.5-2+ screens of results(200 spin per screen) without a crazytime.

255spins between first and second crazytime, and no crazytime in the 365 spins after the last one,  I didn't keep going.

 

With https://jsfiddle.net/hocw4x16/ you are pulling your data from app from 400k simulated spins and getting the average spread. With the actual game you doing it over tiny sample sizes....

If you collect a consistent 400k spins of the actual crazytime results you would find that the frequency of each particular bonus lines up with the frequency you get in your simulated 400k spins.

Why can't you see the error in how you are going about it?

 

If anyone doubts me, here is the link again so you can see for yourself http://crazyrng.infinityfreeapp.com/ There will be many times where you get 3 or 4 per 200 spins and there will be times you get 1.5-2 pages without Crazytime - its all within the range of expectations.

Edited 30 April, 2021 by dirtystack

[dirtystack]

Edit - just realised the order is upside down so it is at least 329 spins before the first crazytime, and then 369 spins between the second to last and the last - assuming the results are populated from the top left to the bottom right.

That's 800 spins and twice it went over 300 spins without a Crazytime.

Are you sure your app isn't motorized or has magnets.

You said you trust the results of the app; maybe actually use it and consider all the info it displays rather then just whatever confirms your beliefs.

Edited 30 April, 2021 by dirtystack

[Stevej]

@dirtystack With small sample sizes? Lol! Well it’s better than your 4 screenshots of 400 spins of crazy time that you’re reading wrong.

I have no idea how you calculate your results in that app, but from your screenshots there are 180 spins between ct’s in those pictures. In one screenshot there are only HUNDRED spins. So that means all of your results you sent are wrong. You read it wrong, again. You praised your IQ earlier, but you can’t count to one hundred?

And as you said, we want better spread of results, I made this app that runs EXACTLY the same thing that you can maybe read correctly. Run this 10 times and you get 4 millions spins. Run it hundred times you get 40 millions spins. That’s enough for every slot.

https://jsfiddle.net/hocw4x16/

Edited 30 April, 2021 by Stevej

[terror_82]

6 hours ago, dirtystack said:

results(200 spin per screen) without a crazytime.

Incorrect. There are only 100 spins per screen. You never got over 300.

Edited 30 April, 2021 by terror_82

[RockSalt]

 I'd say I'm down 3-4 thousand this year from crazy/alice adventues/ dream catcher etc - but i love the wheels and have no complaints.

My opinion is just based on what I feel/have seen having played it for hundreds of hours. For me there's only two explanations.

They have a brake/ a way to give the wheel more momentum.

Or, there's a kink in the wheel. Maybe its imperfectly balanced but in a way which only manifests at a certain speed, certain section - sometimes.

I can't deny I have seen it jolt into an unnatural slow or somehow keep going. Why that happens - we can't know.

 

[dirtystack]

3 hours ago, Stevej said:

@dirtystack With small sample sizes? Lol! Well it’s better than your 4 screenshots of 400 spins of crazy time that you’re reading wrong.

I have no idea how you calculate your results in that app, but from your screenshots there are 180 spins between ct’s in those pictures. In one screenshot there are only HUNDRED spins. So that means all of your results you sent are wrong. You read it wrong, again. You praised your IQ earlier, but you can’t count to one hundred?

And as you said, we want better spread of results, I made this app that runs EXACTLY the same thing that you can maybe read correctly. Run this 10 times and you get 4 millions spins. Run it hundred times you get 40 millions spins. That’s enough for every slot.

https://jsfiddle.net/hocw4x16/

Fair enough, thought there was 200 per page.

So the max I had in 4 spins was 228.

The first post I tried you app would have been 390 rather then 790

I was doing it over a small sample size to show that it is wrong to draw conclusions over a small sample size because the results are skewed when done this way - something you are doing whenever you post the Tracksino info whenever you notice it on a bad streak. Why don’t you ask Evolution for the entire game history since release.

This is the first time in all your rigged threads that you have been correct about anything.

congratulations - my simulations predicted this would be impossible and my simulations simulate millions of threads.

Anyway.

Enjoy your little win, some stones the stars align and you get lucky.

[dirtystack]

Predictive text sucks*

 

[Stevej]

I made one more simulation. I ran 100 million spins of Crazy Time. If anyone interested in the code, let me know. 

100 millions spins means 200 years of Crazy Time spins. 42000 spins per month * 12 is about 500k spins per year.

How many times in one year happens a scenario that two CT bonuses "distance" gets over 300 spins (ct hits, then it's at least 300 spins before the next ct bonus hits):

Based on 100 million spins (200 years)

average is: 33.3

maximum: 50 (it means that some year that scenario happens 50 times)

minimun: 18 (some year that scenario happens only 18 times)

 

Question is how many times this scenario has happened already this 10 months of Crazy Time gameplay (not even one year yet)? I see it constantly happening. 10 times per month would mean already 100 times so far.

Edited 30 April, 2021 by Stevej

[dirtystack]

Oh you still mean over one year.

Ask Evolution for the total amount of spins done since release. 

Ask them for the number of each bonus round since release.

33 times 300 = 9900

Around 2.5-3% of the time, if you played 400 000 spins, you would find yourself in a sequence whereby you don't hit a crazytime in 300 or more spins. It's probably a little higher as the range will be from 300  to 300+ without.

Edited 30 April, 2021 by dirtystack

[Stevej]

5 minutes ago, dirtystack said:

Oh you still mean over one year.

Ask Evolution for the total amount of spins done since release. 

Ask them for the number of each bonus round since release.

So far about 400k spins. They run 40-42k spins per month. I see these stats.

Crazy Time was released June 10th 2020 so been running 10,5 months. 

So average in my calculations for 10 months would be LESS than 33.3.

Got it?

[dirtystack]

So find out the absolute amount of Crazytimes there have been in that period and see if it fits within the average.

From I can see it means, on average, 1 in 40 Crazytimes Bonuses will come 300 or more spins after the previous one.

Do you agree with that?

Edited 30 April, 2021 by dirtystack

[Stevej]

13 minutes ago, dirtystack said:

So find out the absolute amount of Crazytimes there have been in that period and see if it fits within the average.

From I can see it means, on average 1 in 40 Crazytimes will come 300 or more spins after the previous one.

Do you agree with that?

Don't get hurted by my comment. I don't mean this bad, but I think you don't understand and trying to take this into another direction.

Of course the average amount appearance of CT is absolutely correct. I'm not interested that at all. They will make sure CT will appear right amounts in longer periods of time (it is 1/54 = 1.85%) and you can see those stats already on tracksino for example. It's 1.85% already in 3 months of time. That's fine.

I'm counting the scenarious when there are huge caps between those bonuses (over 300 spins between the CT bonuses): read how volatile the appearance of crazy time bonus is. My calculations show that it's more volatile than it should be. Why do they make it more volatile? Because it's more profitable, more addictive, people will do more deposits, they stay in the game waiting for that bonus.

Then later on of course it will appear then i.e. 5 times in a shorter period of time to keep the 1.85% correct in a long run.

My math is based on that fact that you have 54 numbers (54 places in the wheel) and if you keep rolling it every day all the time, you get certain volatiliness of the numbers. If it's an analog wheel and you don't aim to hit certain areas (read: don't rig it), it's the same as I got in 100 million spins.

Edited 30 April, 2021 by Stevej

[dirtystack]

 

I really wish they would put you in charge of this bloody game for a year.

 

[vanHooff]

Assuming that the main wheel on the Crazytime game is fair, there is a 1 in 54 chance per spin that CrazyTime lands.

The distribution of Crazytime landing would follow a Binomial distribution (wiki link) 

In one of the above posts of @Stevej he claims that from empirical evidence of Tracksino he does not dispute the 1/54 chance of  CT landing, 
but claims that the CT landings are clumped. If the data of when the CT have landed are available but I doubt that they are,
the distribution could easily be analyzed in Excel or other tool.

 But I am not going to argue  😜

I just want to point out that https://wizardofodds.com/games/crazy-time/ Wizard of Odds has done some research on Crazytime,
with some effort into reverse-engineering the game. The link might be worth a read. 

Edited 30 April, 2021 by vanHooff

[Stevej]

1 hour ago, vanHooff said:

The distribution of Crazytime landing would follow a Binomial distribution (wiki link) 

In one of the above posts of @Stevej he claims that from empirical evidence of Tracksino he does not dispute the 1/54 chance of  CT landing, 
but claims that the CT landings are clumped. If the data of when the CT have landed are available but I doubt that they are,
the distribution could easily be analyzed in Excel or other tool.

Yes, exactly, that is what my empirical experiment was about. Just to clarify, my empirical test tells that it's 1/54 chance in a long run, but the probability varies constantly.

Let's say I run this test ten times, so it's 1000 million spins, and I never get maximum number higher than 52. What if that number is like 100 or 150, so much higher on a real life casino game? That specific number represents the times when CT bonuses distance is over 300 spins from the previous one in a one year period of time. Do you think that by doing that empirical test gives not close enough result to the real life casino game?

In your opinion what would be the most precise way to calculate the scenario I pointed out? I'm not asking this to argue that you're wrong. I'm really curious to know how you would solve this.

Edited 30 April, 2021 by Stevej

[dirtystack]

47 minutes ago, Stevej said:

Let's say I run this test ten times, so it's 1000 million spins, and I never get maximum number higher than 52. What if that number is like 100 or 150, so much higher on a real life casino game? That specific number represents the times when CT bonuses distance is over 300 spins from the previous one in a one year period of time. Do you think that by doing that empirical test gives not close enough result to the real life casino game?

You would need to gather the complete history. Not just have it resonate with you when you notice it is over 300 spins at any given time. You need the complete history that shows every chain of 300 + spins as a separate event and get rid of the possibility that you are noticing it when it is 300 spins, then looking at it an hour later and noticing it is 360 spins - its still the same unbroken run, 1 of the on average 33 runs of 300+ you would expect in a year. You need to have data backing up that it is happening more often then it should, rather then just thinking it is happening more then it should based on what you are noticing.

Is it possible to make a programme that observes tracksino output 24/7 and timestamps whenever there is a Crazytime -using the the average spin rate per hour it should give you some indication as to what's going long term.

Edited 30 April, 2021 by dirtystack

[Stevej]

2 hours ago, dirtystack said:

You would need to gather the complete history. Not just have it resonate with you when you notice it is over 300 spins at any given time. You need the complete history that shows every chain of 300 + spins as a separate event and get rid of the possibility that you are noticing it when it is 300 spins, then looking at it an hour later and noticing it is 360 spins - its still the same unbroken run, 1 of the on average 33 runs of 300+ you would expect in a year. You need to have data backing up that it is happening more often then it should, rather then just thinking it is happening more then it should based on what you are noticing.

Yes, that is true. I might try to dig that information from somewhere at some point.

[dirtystack]

Maybe you can make an extension that can extract the info automatically from Tracksino's output.