Evolution's Monopoly - stats are off

[IguanaBob]

I am now completely convinced that the problem is entirely within tracksino's data. At the time I looked it said 0 doubles in last hour, however the Monopoly Live history shows several recent 4 rolls that were in fact 5 rolls, which could only happen with doubles. 

Edited 7 June, 2023 by IguanaBob

[Stevej]

5 hours ago, IguanaBob said:

I am now completely convinced that the problem is entirely within tracksino's data. At the time I looked it said 0 doubles in last hour, however the Monopoly Live history shows several recent 4 rolls that were in fact 5 rolls, which could only happen with doubles. 

Yeah, that seems to be the case. Those stats are completely off. Well, maybe it is legit then!

[Stevej]

I became interested, so I got the data from tracksino. I calculated the accurate count of doubles using python, and then performed a cumulative probability analysis.
1month:

n = 7524 # number of trials

k = 1013 # number of successes

p = 1/6 # probability of success on a single trial

The cumulative probability of getting 1013 or fewer doubles in 7,524 rolls is: 1.0441032956734961e-14

I'm pretty sure this is the correct amount of doubles. It's bit low still and quite unlikely event, but I still can't verify if there are no errors in the data, so I just leave it there.

[IguanaBob]

That's still "Win Lottery twice in a row" level bad. I think it's just something wrong with tracksino and wouldn't trust any of the stats.