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Cricket Bet - England v Australia 5th Ashes Test

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I believe there's value to be found in the 5th Ashes test match. England play Australia, start time is 11am BST.

There's currently value in fading Australia at 2.98 (£1779 liquidity at time of writing) on Betfair.

The reason the value exists is due to the weather forecast. There's around a 50% chance of rain tomorrow until approximately 1pm. It takes around 2 hours for the officials to make the pitch playable. The absolute earliest I expect them to take the field if rain arrives according to the forecast is 2pm. We'll have lost 3 hours of cricket. The forecast for Friday is good, we can expect a full day of cricket. Saturday & Sunday's weather forecast is good, I expect to see 2 full days of cricket. Monday would appear to be a washout.

Australia probably don't chalk up a fast enough run rate to win this game outright. In my model, the draw is currently over priced. England do score at a fast enough run rate to win this test so for me the bet is to lay Australia on Betfair.

If the weather forecast is correct, I expect the draw price to contract signficantly within the next 13 hours (currently 4, wouldn't be surprised to see it hit 3.5). Closing line value should be found by either backing the draw or fading Australia.

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