PRNG Random Lets Talk About It...

[FreeWheelerBaby]

Pseudo Random number generators are not true. As they are computers that use algorithms, what is anyone's thoughts on the fact that if the seed is known, then all the rest can be predetermined. Meaning your outcomes are know before you do, therefore I would say it is very possible to also determine who wins and who doesn't...

[dagreenblazer]

From my understanding of it, it would come down to whose PRNG software you are using and which evaluation tests it has passed.

 

In the main, the mathematical difficulty problems of a 'good' algorithm for a seed to pass through should make any results inherently undeterminable - in a well constructed PRNG the system itself is deterministic but individual values within it are not. This is a criteria of most standards tests, as well as the requirement that forward or backward sequence guessing is impossible.

(And gambling is only 1 application use; Security applications would need PRNGs where it's more important that previous numbers generated are not being able to be guessed - casinos only care about the future numbers, but a well constructed PRNG only passes standards once it proves that any future or previous state conditions cannot be guessed from a snapshot of current state conditions.)

I would expect professional casinos to be using the best PRNG available - nothing personal dude though in my opinion thinking it'll be used to decide who gets paid or not is conspiracy thinking; professional casinos make enough profit running legal operations and us punters are just faceless, nameless numbers to them - 5% get paid, 95% lose money; they couldn't care less who's on which side as long as someone is.

And the reason they'll use the best PRNG is because they themselves are the biggest targets if individual values & results suddenly become deterministic. Any casino worth it's salt lives and dies on results remaining random. And that's not just for players, that's for staff too - advantage using employees are a way, way bigger risk than advantage using punters.

 

Of course, over the coming years i wouldn't be surprised to see stories of casinos using poor quality PRNGs, though again i would more expect it to be that the casinos get taken for a ride by it more than the punter base is. It is an interesting topic indeed, and any PRNGs which are generating poor quality results can often remain undetected for a long time, so i would assume potential for casinos to be rinsed out is quite high too if they're not using 'good' programs.

 

[FreeWheelerBaby]

@dagreenblazer Apparently a dude called Kamila Akagi Moe, developed a mersenne twister cracking algorithm to recover initial seeds and posted it online, not long after he vanished. 

Then we also have the actual proofs of how to crack using machine learning techniques https://research.nccgroup.com/2021/10/15/cracking-random-number-generators-using-machine-learning-part-1-xorshift128/ there is also a part 2. 

I mean a lot of it goes over my head but here it is showing the possibilities and offering security solutions, yes it really is a topic I have to agree with Neumann and his famous quote " Anyone who considers arithmetical methods of producing random digits is, of course in a state of sin " Jon Von Neumann 

What is your thoughts on machine learning techniques?

 

[dagreenblazer]

Sorry for delay replying mate - i had a good Google of that article too thanks - is interesting to read cheers!

 

I think again alot of code getting cracked will come down to who's PRNG software you're using & how well it's written, though there is certainly a strong potential for anything to be crackable and the power of machine learning means vulnerabilities that are invisible to human eyes will be obvious to AI.

 

The other area which will really ramp up this risk though is when quantum computing comes online - AI/machine learning can do alot of mad stuff but it's essentially still working on human designed systems and is limited by our current hardware & design methods. Quantum computing would allow a kid in his bedroom to crack the whole world in minutes; if that power is given to AI (and tbh, AI will probably be required to run these new systems because humans will be too slow to keep up) then literally anything could happen.

 

Though again, in terms of gambling the bigger risk would likely appear to be to the casino - i would not be surprised to see a quantum powered AI machine able to predict every future slot payout from a miniscule sample of 10 previous spins - anything that relies on an algorithm remaining hidden is going to be in big trouble.