The Newcomb problem (thought experiment)

[IguanaBob]

Since the "is this forum dead?" topic came up, I thought I'd try a thread on one of my favourite thought experiments.

An alien comes to Earth, the "predictor". He shows that he has an extremely high grasp of being able to predict the future, this allows him to make a profit from the markets, both financial and sporting. Eventually his predictive powers have earned him several million so he decides to play a game with his earnings before he leaves. The predictor cannot actually see the future, just makes predictions off cues in the present

He will interview random people then he will always put £1000 in box A and may put £1,000,000 in box B but may not. The people he interviewed come in and either take both boxes or just box B, He has stated that if he believes the person is going to take both boxes he will leave box B empty, if he believes that the person will take box B  only he will put £1M in it.

You are 35th in the queue and when you get to your choice you see that so far he has correctly predicted everyone: 25 people have taken box B  only and gone home with £1M, 9 people have taken both boxes and gone home with £1000

The boxes are 100% not being tampered with. The state of box B was determined by the predictor hours ago and  you can be 100% sure that it will not alter.

Do you take both boxes or just box B?

I am a both-boxer. The way I see it is that what's happened has happened. What I want is for the £1M box to be full, but there's nothing I can do about that now, it is already full or empty, so either way by taking both boxes I end up with £1000 more than taking box B only. Now that means I'll likely end up with £1000 whilst the people who make the "wrong" decision and leave £1000 behind end up with  £1M but that's the nature of the paradox, at the point I make the choice there's nothing I can do to transport the £1M in or out, it's already there or it isn't.

[IguanaBob]

Well I thought someone might have an opinion. Agree/disagree/third option. It's (to me anyway) a very interesting conundrum and stretches the same kind of logical nerves as those about whether to gamble or not.