Dota 2 WEPLAY ANIMAJOR 02.06.2021 - 13.06.2021

[anonymousapple]

Next major coming up! Will be posting my bets/analysis here.

 

First it will be Wild Cards, only top 2 teams advance to group stage. BO2 matches.

 

Execration - One of the weaker teams in the Wild Cards, recent performance has been a hit or miss.

AS Monaco Gambit - Hasn't been performing that great, replaced 2 players on 25th May so they are using 2 stand ins, coordination & teamplay will be the weakest among all the teams.

Invictus Gaming - Down 1 player, 'Super' (ex IG player and current iG coach of 2 years) will stand in. They still have a shot because i personally dont feel its a massive downgrade for them. Recent performance since the Major win has been mediocre.

Team Nigma - Pretty standard team, mediocre performance as well. 

Team Secret - Underwhelming since Major loss, plenty of close series, proceed with caution.

Vici Gaming - Personally feel VG is the strongest team in this Wild Card, China is extremely competitive and is considered the toughest region this time round (EU 2nd). They have been performing really well.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Day 1 Wild Card

Secret vs AS Monaco Gambit : Secret should take this, 2-0. However the current odds are extremely low , Secret -1.5 is around 1.22 and im personally not a fan of this odds, will skip.

VG vs Nigma : Vici straight up at 1.5.

XcTN vs IG :  I have went for XCTN to win at least 1 map at 2.5 odds due to the coach factor in iG. XcTN is playing with their full team after all.

Nigma vs AS Monaco Gambit : Nigma should take this as well but at -1.5 the odds are still pretty low at 1.35, will skip. However, if Gambit made Secret sweat for their games, i will go either Gambit +1.5 or Gambit straight up at above 10 odds.

Gambit vs XCTN : XCTN straight up.

VG vs Secret : Personally leaning towards VG straight up at evens (2.0), subject to change based on Match 1 and Match 2 above.

XCTN vs VG: VG -1.5

Nigma vs iG: iG straight up if they win Match 3, else Nigma.

 

Also going for a cheeky EG/VG to win tournament, 1 unit each.

 

Where to bet?

Tier 1: Bet365, Pinnacle

Tier 2: Betway, Unibet

Others: Paddypower, Betfair, Skybet

Crypto: EGB

 

Things to note:

EG, VP, iG, Secret has enough DPC points to qualify for TI.

This is Nigma & Vici Gaming's best shot to secure their TI spot (out of all the WC teams).

 

 

[LetsGiveItASpin]

Wow, that's some heavy analysis right there! Is it fine if I post my thoughts here as well or you prefer if I make my own thread? Getting really hyped! ❤️ 

[anonymousapple]

4 hours ago, LetsGiveItASpin said:

Wow, that's some heavy analysis right there! Is it fine if I post my thoughts here as well or you prefer if I make my own thread? Getting really hyped! ❤️ 

Fine with anything kimster! 😁

[vanHooff]

As I don't have access to B365 + Pinnacle and odds might differ for my region, I still tried to follow most of the bets. 

But betting this is like filling out the lottery numbers for me. 😁 

Edited 1 June, 2021 by vanHooff

[LetsGiveItASpin]

I took Vici to win 2-0 for first series, I think it's very good value based on past performance. 

[LetsGiveItASpin]

Great showing from VG in game 1, was a bit scared for a while but late game void/doom is almost impossible to beat.

[Saudalelele]

@LetsGiveItASpinDid the bet go inn? Don't know LOL, and Betson is down so I can't check😅

[vanHooff]

As far as I understand the score Vici Gaming - Team Nigma is 1-0 now.
The match is over two games, bets comes in if Vici Gaming wins the second game as well. 

[Saudalelele]

@vanHooff Thanks mate😁 

 

[LetsGiveItASpin]

Nigma won 2nd game so the bet missed  Feel like VIci threw quite a few times to get too far behind for a comeback

[anonymousapple]

Secret ended in a 1-1, good call to skip at those extremely low odds.

Vici ended in 1-1 so basically money back since the bet is void (2 way straight up)

 

Will give gambit and XCTN to take at least a game for the next. Also definitely VG straight up against Secret and a straight up on XCTN>Gambit (note that this will be the 3rd set gambit will be playing in a row, so 6 straight games)

Edited 2 June, 2021 by anonymousapple

[LetsGiveItASpin]

17 minutes ago, anonymousapple said:

Secret ended in a 1-1, good call to skip at those extremely low odds.

Vici ended in 1-1 so basically money back since the bet is void (2 way straight up)

 

Will give gambit and XCTN to take at least a game for the next. Also definitely VG straight up against Secret and a straight up on XCTN>Gambit (note that this will be the 3rd set gambit will be playing in a row, so 6 straight games)

I put 2 singles on VG winning Map 1 and Map 2, about evens for each bet

[anonymousapple]

Gambit and iG has decent drafts for Map 1, looking to be a good game.

[anonymousapple]

XCTN came in, gambit was pretty close but not good enough. Slight profit overall

[anonymousapple]

Both games this round ended in 1-1, so money back. Leaning towards Nigma straight up next and skipping VG because the odds are too low/short

[LetsGiveItASpin]

A lot of 1-1 games it feels like, guess it is because of the patch and teams not being able to entirely figure it out

[anonymousapple]

iG played really well against Nigma. Ended day 1 with slight profit.

Standings after Day 1

 

Aftermath of day 1, seems like any team can take a game off any team. There were a handful of close games but very few convincing wins. 

 

Here are my bet choices for day 2. Black circles are straight up (2 way market), red circles are potential -1.5 but the odds are/will be too low, so perhaps skipping would be a wiser choice. Will focus on some live betting too after draft, personally not a huge fan of pre game bets unless they are extreme value

 

 

Edited 3 June, 2021 by anonymousapple

[ILOVEFLOP]

Get inn guys

[anonymousapple]

Decent day, nigma 2-0 xctn, vg 2-0 ig, secret nigma resulted in a tie because of the remake (so money back). 0 losses so far 

 

Right now either Secret or iG needs to win 2-0 to proceed to the next stage. Im personally still leaning towards secret but it will mostly be decided by the draft, both teams are quite good and need to sweep the other to proceed to the main stage

Edited 3 June, 2021 by anonymousapple

[LetsGiveItASpin]

Have to say I'm very impressed by Nigmas play in the last few games, was expecting them to be quite the underdogs against PSG.LGD tomorrow but it's almost even, possibly worth a punt the other way 😮 

[anonymousapple]

As stated in OP, seems like the 2 most desperate teams managed to get through.

 

Day 1 group stage is more like an observation period because we dont know how the none WC teams will perform. beastcoast could pull another thunder predator. 

 

Eyeing a liquid and LGD -1.5 against beastcoast (at 2.62 and 1.8 respectively). Team Spirit +1.5 against EG and Nigma could be worth it too, the odds are underestimating team spirit by a fair margin.

 

[anonymousapple]

6 hours ago, LetsGiveItASpin said:

Have to say I'm very impressed by Nigmas play in the last few games, was expecting them to be quite the underdogs against PSG.LGD tomorrow but it's almost even, possibly worth a punt the other way 😮 

Yea, its leaning towards 2.7 last i saw, could be worth a shot if u got the feeling

[anonymousapple]

liquid -1.5 didnt come in but lgd -1.5 and spirit +1.5 did, decent so far. Team Spirit has a good chance against Nigma.

[anonymousapple]

Today's interesting matches should be EG vs VG, Liquid vs Nigma and perhaps beastcoast vs TNC. 

 

Giving a slight edge to VG, Nigma and TNC but wouldn't be surprised at a draw. (2 way market is the safest for money back if draw)

 

If u dont feel like watching on twitch, u can check it on https://www.trackdota.com/ if the game is being played live to see the current score/gold advantage/map score

Edited 5 June, 2021 by anonymousapple

[LetsGiveItASpin]

I kind of like EG -1.5 against Vici, they've been strong against the asian teams