Jump to content

Just a theory


Recommended Posts

Hello guys, I'm new here, I've been reading some of the posts every now and then, but haven't had any contributions yet, but I have this theory that I'd like to share with you, and I'm interested in hearing your thoughts on it, and if anyone has experienced the same. 

So yeah, due to my work rotation I'm home for 4 weeks, then I'm away for work for 4 weeks, normally I'll play within the first week after I get home, and then I won't play for my remaining weeks at home, and then I'll go to work for another 4 weeks, come back home and play within the first week again, so I've been playing approximately every 7th week. 

Did this between January-July this year and I went pretty good profit, I'd win on my first try every single time after I got home, and I'd make a bigger withdrawal, I'd deposit maybe 100 euro and I'd leave with atleast 500 euro when I withdrew, but if I made another deposit I'd just rip very fast so I wouldn't play more for another 7-8 weeks before I got home from work again. My best period was end of june-Start of july, I registered at 4 different casino's, took their welcome bonus, wagered it all and withdrew the same day. I even played the excact same slots in the excact same order on every casino, and it actually worked. 

So after seeing a lot of streamer's talking about having these really hot period's followed by these really cold period's my theory is that if you wait a long time (In my case 7-8 weeks) after a profit withdraw, you'll do much better when you actually play.


I know, might sound a bit crazy, but I had a really good period from January-July doing excactly this. Unfortunately I dont have any experience with this after the summer as I've been staying overtime, doing longer trips at work and barely been off the work since the summer. 


I'm happy to hear what you guys think about this theory, as I said, might sound crazy, but I had a really good period.

Link to comment

I think you could wait 7 weeks....7 days....7 mins....it wouldn't make any difference. Slots have no memory or concept of time so what you describe really just sounds like our friend randomness playing out.

That's not the same as saying what happened for you personally doesn't work. But there is no real method to what you describe...it's just luck and not much else. Good luck.

Link to comment

Yeah you're probably right.

But some slot's need's memory, or is it stored in the casino's memory? For example immortal romance, when you've had the bonus a certain amount of times on one casino it opens up a new bonusmode. 

And I just think it's a bit weird how I can win a lot and then go many weeks without even being above my deposit once. 

Link to comment

Yes it is true that some slots need memory but not to determine the outcome of a spin.

In immortal romance this is nothing more than a flag set against the account (casinoID) used to make the bet when you have you accomplished certain tasks. This can then be used to pick your bonus game. The RTP for the bonus game is very likely to be equal for all games with the only differentiator being the volatility of each individual bonus.

In the example of something like Vikings Go Bezerk and the rage metres it's very likely that the rage counters form a separate part of the RTP payout of the overall game. So the overall rtp is something like 96% which is then broken down further like....50% goes to base game, 40% goes to the bonus game with the remaining 6% going to the Bezerk rage meter stuff.  In this instance the game remembers how much you hold in each meter but it has no overall bearing on the rtp of the machine as it's already factored in. There are some considerations to take into account. The Bezerk meter could potentially be weighed within the virtual reels to increase / decrease the probability of hitting another required symbol dependent on current progress of each individual meter. If this were the case  (and I have my suspicions that ygrassil may indeed do this) it still doesn't mean it's not random. It's just randomness playing out the mathematical model of the game as intended. But there is a more interesting question which is this - what happens to accumulated Bezerk meter completion if it is never realised? Let's assume a full pot of Bezerk juice makes up on average 0.1 of the overall rtp if 96% (it will of course be much lower). So of that 0.1% let's assume it takes 20 full reels to fill a pot. Each collected symbol therefore has a value of 0.005% of the overall RTP of the game. But what if you decide one day that you will never play this game ever again and decide to forfeit your current pots each filled with 5 symbols each? If we use the example above we are then effectively giving away 4 x pots x 5 symbols each @ 0.005 per symbol = 0.1% of unrealised RTP. It is my best guess that because the real value of individual is filled meter is so insignificant that these can effectively be lost without having any significant effect on the single decimal place rtp target. It also my guess that perhaps this abandoned rtp might already be factored into the overall model of the game. But if it wasn't then the overall effect on the RTP of the machine over a very long cycles of spins (at least 100s of billions) should mean failure to hit the RTP with each spin cycle compounding it further and further (assuming people still abandon semi filled pots). The opposite is also true....if the developers have a concept of abandoned meters and factor this into the game model....always completing every single meter should see the RTP exceeded.

Sorry I ended up going off topic slightly there but it's good stuff worth thinking about I think :-)

Link to comment


This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Create New...