biggestdosser

Today Bet #61 Cleveland Cavaliers beat Dallas Mavericks, Odds 2,15, 1 unit Tonight I have 2 bets which have been moved by wise-guy money. I wish I had played especially Warriors earlier, because it was my favorite lean, but ok, that happens. Late in the season, there are always questionable motivational spots, so often the lines dont make much sense at first sight. Now Cavs have lost even more playing quality with Mobley out. Dinwiddie sits out for the Mavs. Coach Kidd will again try to win this game while giving one of his players some extra rest for the playoffs. He knows that rest > home advantage in the playoffs. Cavs have been a covering machine for almost all of the season. Especially at home they are not willing to give up games. If Mavs are only semi-motivated tonight, look for Cavs to again sneak out a close game at home. Today Bet #62 Golden State Warriors beat Phoenix Suns, Odds 2,65, 1 unit Unfortunately I didnt play Warrriors earlier today at 3,0+ odds, but wise-guys pumped a ton of money on the Warriors, due to 2 reasons. Both are enough for me to play Warriors tonight. 1. Suns basically have already clinched no.1 spot in the nba + home advantage for all season, so nothing to play for left. 2. Warriors match up the best among all nba teams vs. Suns because they are ok with their playing style and defending it. On the other hand, Suns have more work to do, defending the Warriors, when their motion offense gets going. It's not as easy as stopping a one dominant scorer type of team. Today Bet #63 Oklahoma City Thunder +12,5 cover vs. Atlanta Hawks, Odds 2,0, 1 unit Attention: Tre Mann is still questionable, if he plays, it's an even better bet. If not, you will get even better odds. If you can wait for line-ups, do so. Hawks are strong at home, but stink on the road, that has been the main topic all season. With Galinari and Collins out, their margin for error goes down. OKC has been top in the league in covering ATS because they get so huge spreads which their opponents cant cover late in the game because Thunder play hard until the end. Even without Tre Mann, they managed to win at Blazers. He will be missed, if OKC wants to tank, but the rest is still capable enough, that they can always close the gap late in the game to cover +12,5.

Today Bet #60 LA Lakers +11,5 cover vs. Dallas Mavericks, Odds 1,95, 1 unit Bookies assume LeBron is out tonight and I agree. If you can wait until lineups are announced, you can expect the odds even getting a little higher then if you are patient. Anyways I like the Lakers to cover tonight because despite the injury, the rest of the team has looked a little bit better over the last few games. It's not pretty, but the Lakers have worked ok now with Howard and Gabriel together, having a bit more size, that could help with the rebounding vs. smallish Mavs team and force Kidd to play bigger than he wants to. Also vs. 76ers the team played hard until last second, that makes backdoor covers more probable when you got big lines to cover like tonight. Mavs are also not an offensive juggernaut, winning games by 30+ often. Despite LeBron out, Lakers are competently coached by Vogel who has seen improvement, so the line is just too high tonight, the Lakers without LEBron are not one of the 4-5 worst teams in the league.

Today Bet #58 Orlando Magic +9,5 cover vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, Odds 2,0, 1 unit I dont agree with this line because the Cavaliers injuries have made this team quite a bit tired over the last couple of weeks. They continue to fight to grind out games, but making them huge favorites to cover those lines, looks very hard to me with the limited amount of quality players. For the last 19 games, they havent won by double-digits, even against bad opponents like Wizards. Orlando is a bad team, but not as tanking like Blazers. Whenever it's not a back-to-back situation, Markelle Fultz plays = better chances for Magic to cover. It looks as if Carter Jr. returns tonight, which would be a top boost for Magic. It's simple with Orlando, their starting five loses points, then the bench unit around Fultz rallies, that happens constantly and leads to close losses. Tonight those +9,5 points should be enough for Magic to cover when we repeat that same pattern. Today Bet #59 Sacramento Kings +13,5 cover vs. Miami Heat, Odds 1,95, 1 unit Heat shouldnt be that big of a favorite vs. ANY team right now, because their offense and 3-point shooting has absolutely going down in flames. Nobody seems to hit a shot + the defense also slipped. The Butler fiasco with coach Spoelstra and Haslem is just the icing on the cake. Kings coach Gentry wont return next season, so he has no reason to tank, he wont benefit from a high pick anyways. What he can do, is playing hard with all the players he has left and win a few more games on his coaching resume to possibly get a good new job next year. Until Miami shows me, that they have regained their shooting stroke + consistent defensive effort, I will fade them anytime they have to cover more than 9 points vs. any team besides Blazers.

Today Bet #56 Washington Wizards beat Golden State Warriors, Odds 3,35, 1 unit Coach Kerr still wants to practice different line-ups to prepare for the playoffs. While using those line-ups there are some which work well and some which simply suck. The result is secondary importance, it's more vital to him to find good combinations. Wizards have decided to start Satoransky, a good decisions because he is better than Neto. With that change, the balance in the starting five of the Wizards has become better. Maybe now Porzingis can continue his better play. Two teams who still have to try things out, that sounds like quite an experiment where anything can happen, thats why I like Wizards as big underdogs because their opponent is not focused primarily on winning. Today Bet #57 Charlotte Hornets beat Brooklyn Nets, Odds 3,25, 1 unit Everybody proclaiming Nets already as a top favorite should be cognizant, that the defense is still a work in progress, especially while Simmonds is still out. Now they return after their big win at Miami and can now play with Kyrie in home games. Now in my estimation, the offense skillz of Nets make defense very hard, but if you have good enough offense, you can make it a game vs. them. I hope that Hornets can continue with their pace and use the zone defense to at least make life a bit harder than usual for Nets to win. Hornets have performed well this season when having rest advantage vs. the opponent at 10-7-1 ATS while Nets are 3-8-1 with no rest. You can play Hornets +6,5 to be safer, but tonight I will play both dogs ML and hoping one of them will win for profit.

Today Bet #55 LA Clippers beat Philadelphia 76ers, Odds 2,75, 1 unit Clippers on a bad losing streak while 76ers have won their last game at Lakers without LeBron. However 76ers have played quite a lot of games lately and with the hotel stay at Los Angeles, I would expect several Philly guys to party instead of resting over the last 2 nights. The more games you lose in the NBA, the more determined you become to stop the losing streak. Their last loss at Nuggets was actually not terrible, they just ran into a very good Nuggets team with great home advantage. I do expect an easier game for the Clippers tonight, fresher and much more rested than 76ers and they will try to push the tempo right from the start. I am expecting a 100% effort by the Clippers, while I am unsure how motivated and fresh the 76ers are for this game.

Today Bet #53 Oklahoma City Thunder beat Orlando Magic, Odds 2,25, 1 unit Just watched the Magic fighting hard with lots of passion at home to beat Warriors. They got very very lucky to win this game thanks to joke turnovers by Golden State and stupid fouls in 4th quarter. Orlando still is limited in creating shots and they shoot extremely poorly from 3-point range. But main reason I fade them is the high probability that Fultz is sitting out again the 2nd game of a back-to-back to protect his body. He was the main reason that Orlando rallied to win the game. With him out, Magic get much worse and OKC has a great chance to win that game. Unfortunately Shai sits out due to ankle soreness, but I still see OKC as more hungry tonight vs. a happy Magic team after surprise win vs. Warriors. I cant see Orlando putting up the same energy vs. OKC the day after. Wendell Carter is out for Orlando, he has been a great player for them over the last 3-4 games. Today Bet #54 Houston Rockets +9,5 cover vs. Dallas Mavericks, Odds 2,05, 1 unit Mavericks rest Luka today in order to be ready for the next game at Minnesota, which will be a revenge spot after that very heated last game with lots of questionable calls and fouls late in the game. Against Houston, there is a great chance that Dinwiddie, Brunson and Powell can win that game by themselves. Add in Bullock and Finney-Smith and this Mavs team is on paper still a lot better than Rockets. However, that Rockets team is very streaky because of all their 3-point shooting. The Mavericks had a long time a very good 3-point defense, but over the last 6-7 games that has changed, both in number of 3-point attempts as in success for the opponent. Maybe it's fatigue, maybe it's lack of motivation, but if that trend continues that the Mavs are not one of the best 3-point defending teams in the league, Rockets hit enough 3s to keep the game close and cover.

Today Bet #52 Orlando Magic +7,5 cover vs. Golden State Warriors, Odds 2,05, 1 unit Lets do it one more time again: This bet is simply based on following stat: Warriors have not covered -7,5 in the last 16 games without Steph Curry playing over the last 2 years! As good as the Warriors have been this season, coach Kerr still hasnt solved the mystery of playing well without Curry in the lineup. He makes and breaks this team, no matter how good or bad the opponent. Usually I would take the risk and play ML Magic winner at 3,9, but in last game, the late game execution by Warriors wasnt bad and they got unlucky vs. Spurs to lose that game. Also Orlando is questionable late with Cole Anthony as PG, not a real good one. I wish Fultz were healthy enough to close the games instead, but he is still on minutes restriction. Still, if you want to add ML, I sure wont stop you from doing it because of the Warriors dependence on Curry.

Today Bet #51 NY Knicks beat Atlanta Hawks, Odds 2,1, 1 unit No chance that Knicks should be underdogs vs. Atlanta, even with Coach Thibs now playing more rookies and young players in the rotation after giving up on the playoffs. This game is a revenge game from last years playoffs when Hawks punked Knicks. It's time for more payback after winning all 3 games so far vs. Hawks in the regular season. This Hawks is not the same as last years playoffs. Collins is out, Huerter and Bogdanovic have been quite hurt over the last days and weeks at maybe 40% of their skillz. Lou Williams is also out and Capela has regressed in his performance. Only Galinari is playing fine and Trae Young cant save the rest of the team, if they play poorly. Collins was the main defender of Randle during playoffs, it will be harder for Hawks to stop him despite Randle having such a poor season. Kick the rival while he is down, that is another good opportunity to crush Hawks chances for a good playoff spot. Anything 2,0 and better is worth betting. Expecting odds to drop, therefore I post early for readers to place their bets.

Nice that you won some money with the picks. I got lucky by hitting 3 out of my 6 two-team parlays for a nice profit. That is the variance of NBA ML underdogs betting. On good days, you make lots of units to keep your head over water until bad streaks come again. Looking at my ROI, suddenly we are back over 10% ROI just by winning 3 out of 4 bets today. That's the normal business in this kind of betting.

4 bets today, will post them all in one now because not sure when I return to a computer today, all a bit shorter due to lack of time. Good Luck Today Bet #47 LA Lakers beat Cleveland Cavaliers, Odds 2,85, 1 unit Every time LeBron returns to Cleveland, it's a very exciting time with him being ready to play well in front of his family of friends from that area. 3 things make me bet Lakers tonight. a) Cavs are really tired now, said so after the Pistons win, where they just got lucky late. b) The inclusion of Wenyen Gabriel in the lineup brings more young legs in the Lakers team and puts Reaves back on the bench where he performs better vs. reserve players after getting subbed in, good decision by Coach Vogel which will pay off. c) Referees have decided to call more personal fouls now than earlier this season, which will benefit LeBron and Westbrook and give them more Free Throws than Cavs are used to giving up. Today Bet #48 Portland TrailBlazers beat Detroit Pistons, Odds 3,65, 1 unit Last 12 times the Pistons covered, but only because they got such huge spreads to cover. Now they are huge favorites themselves which they are not accustomed to. Back-to-back fatigue is no issue because Blazers players except for Hart have basically not played at all for 2/3 of the season. Blazers +8 1,95 is probably the better option tonight with Pistons struggling to crush bad teams, but tonight I will play all my 4 Moneyline dogs in different parlays and combos, hoping that at least 2 of them will win for profit. Today Bet #49 Toronto Raptors beat Chicago Bulls, Odds 2,45, 1 unit Attention: VanVleet is probable to play, so you can wait for lineups to play this bet. If he doesnt, then the odds will rise to hopefully 2,8+ to play it. Generally I am ok backing the Raptors even on a back-to-back travelling from a tough game because of coach Nurse, the youth of the team and that their length and defense travels well in away games. Sure, they could get blown out, if Bulls hit lots of 3s, but Raptors defense should give us a chance to win that game. Today Bet #50 Houston Rockets beat Washington Wizards, Odds 2,85, 1 unit Every time the Wizards are big favorites this late in the season, I am willing to fade them because their lack of motivation is palpable. Even against Lakers, a team where there should be some motivation, they barely squaked out a win. Now at Houston, they are supposed to play hard? I could imagine those Wizards players actually caring more about the strip clubs at Houston than playing hard tonight. Prime example was their loss at Portland vs. an even poorer team. Key for Rockets is always their 3-point performance, so I hope Wizards disinterest of defense leads to many open 3s for Houston to win.

Today Bet #46 San Antonio Spurs +6,5 cover vs. Golden State Warriors, Odds 1,95, 1 unit This bet is simply based on following stat: Warriors have not covered -6,5 in the last 15 games without Steph Curry playing over the last 2 years! As good as the Warriors have been this season, coach Kerr still hasnt solved the mystery of playing well without Curry in the lineup. He makes and breaks this team, no matter how good or bad the opponent. Usually I would take the risk and play ML Spurs winner at 3,3, but coach Gregg Popovich is the one coach who decides NOT to foul down 6 with few seconds in the game, so that +6,5 line is right at the edge of that. That makes the spread here more useful than not. Still, if you want to add ML, I sure wont stop you from doing it because of the Warriors dependence on Curry.

Today Bet #45 NY Knicks beat Utah Jazz, Odds 2,5, 1 unit Last bet for today: Lots of odds movements in other games, so I will just add this single bet here for today. Mike Conley is out for Utah, who has been a thorn in the Knicks side in many games. His overview of the court plus his underrated team defense are issues for the Knicks team to solve over the last games. No surprise his Plus/Minus numbers vs. the Knicks have been very good because he led the bench to big scoring runs. Now it's even more the Donovan Mitchell show, so he can score 30+ points easy tonight, but wont get the others easier buckets and also lacks more on defense. The quicker, the Knicks can draw fouls on Gobert or ONeale, the more holes the defense of the Jazz will get. Game will be decided on the free throw line and with offensive rebounds by guys like Randle and Robinson. With Conley out, the Knicks have a golden opportunity tonight to get closer to the play-in spot with a win.

Today Bet #44 Portland TrailBlazers beat Indiana Pacers, Odds 3,5, 1 unit Tanking teams facing each other, Part 1. Both teams are not interested in playoffs and simply want to play unknown and young players to see if one of them is worth keeping for next season. So it's basically just journeymen trying to keep their jobs and try hard instead of real team play or having a team goal. In those situations it's always advisable to play the away dog because home advantage in those cases is lower than usual. Pacers technically have more talent, but who knows how their established players are spending their free time during those dire times. They have already shown how to lose winnable games over the last weeks after the Haliburton trade. Any odds > 2,5 in those tanking vs. tanking teams are historically valuable, so I will keep searching for those spots. And odds over 3.3 like today are definitely worth a big bet. Again you could play TrailBlazers +7,5 to lower variance if desired.

Today Bet #43 Dallas Mavericks beat Charlotte Hornets, Odds 2,05, 1 unit Attention: This bet is based on all Mavs players suiting up except for Dinwiddie. You can wait until official lineups are posted and then play the bet. If a big name like Luka Doncic is out, you can still play the Mavs at 0,5 units with the adjusted higher odds. Either way I am backing the Mavericks because they are quite the antidote to the Hornets wild and undisciplined playstyle. Hornets love free-flowing play in the open court with games scored in the 130s if possible. Whenever the game slows down in the half-court, their efficiency plummets. Mavs will keep the tempo slow, typical of Jason Kidd and Luka Doncic, making it a grind it out low-scoring affair with the better 3-point shooting deciding the game. And thats where I emphasize the major quality difference. Mavs allow super few 3-pointers and also defend them very well. Hornets simply allow the 2nd-most 3s in the league and also allow a higher percentage. Sure, the Mavs could have tired legs and miss tons of 3s tonight, losing this way. But if both teams play their normal average game, Mavs will win more often than not because of superior shot creation.

Today Bet #41 OKC Thunder +16,5 cover vs. Miami Heat, Odds 1,95, 1 unit Bet is based on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander playing for Thunder. If he is confirmed in the lineup, it's value up to OKC +14 1,95. If he is out, I would still play Thunder +17,5 1,95 and higher. Lineup infos can be had fasted via Twitter on the Draftkings or NBA info twitter accounts for fantasy sports DFS. Again it's a year of rebuild for OKC and over the season they lost more and more of their good players to injuries like Dort, Giddey, Williams and Jerome. SGA is the only remaining true NBA player on the roster, Bazley can be ok but other than that it looks bleak. However the bookies have OKC so far down the power rankings, that they managed to be 40-25 ATS this season, a far improvement vs. 31-40 ATS last year. They still lose many games but cover much more than they used to. So far SGA hasnt sit out any of those impossible to win games, it looks as if he is unwilling to tank on purpose. As long as this attitude is in this team, they will continue to cover more often than not as huge underdogs. Today Bet #42 LA Clippers beat Utah Jazz Odds 2,95, 1 unit Jazz injuries are piling on with Mitchell out tonight and House, Bogdanovic questionable. If you add the loss of Ingles earlier this season, then you only have a few guys left who know how to play Coach Snyder type of basketball. Things gotten so bad, that Jazz have now resorted to playing Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who is still adjusting to Jazz after trade and is not a typical Jazz player yet. Fatigue is becoming an issue for the Clippers, that's why they sat Reggie Jackson during last road trip for a game. At least Covington is back after personal break. They will try to repeat the same strategy of playing small-ball vs. Jazz if they struggle vs. Gobert just like they did in last playoffs. The defense on the perimeter for the Jazz is atrocious. Tonight I bet on the Clippers because of the urgency to stop the losing streak soon, which I heard after their last Raptors loss. Even though I bet against Clippers in that game, I was quite impressed by their effort because Raptors are a really good team. Next game at Denver would be an even bigger hurdle, so beating Jazz tonight is in my eyes the easier chance to break losing streak. We should see at least an inspired effort by Clippers, giving us at least a good chance to cash high odds.

For historical information my alltime record is 462 wins, 13 pushes, 490 losses at average odds of 2.55 according to my Bettingadvice betting records: https://bettingadvice.com/tipster/99022077/1253

For higher hitting percentages you will have to look for a different handicapper, because my expertise lies in playing underdogs both spread + Moneyline and hope to maintain hitting 50% winners with an average odds of 2.3+ over all bets. Attached is my current record, which is at around 5% ROI excluding prop bets. I would love to have around 8-12% ROI but betting underdogs is high variance. There are lots of other handicappers available in all forums and on Twitter/Youtube who you should follow with different betting strategies and hit around 53-54% with spread bets. I personally dont know any successful NBA handicapper who bets odds 1,5 and lower who is profitable by hitting 70%, that's a really hard challenge to do so. Today Bet #39 Portland Trailblazers +12,5 cover vs. NY Knicks, Odds 1,97, 1 unit That's a game which comes down to the mentality of the Knicks team and the environmnt of Madison Square Garden, the home arena of the Knicks. With the lights and the set-up of the court, it's the favorite court set-up for many young players who enter the league because it feels like playing under bright lights and you see the basket perfectly. Knicks often play up to their competition when they face top teams but also play down to their competition when they play poor teams. It's a team full of ok and mediocre players which are not built to fully dominate and crush crap teams by 30+ points. The Blazers team sure is tanking and playing lots of unknown players. But with the KNicks not being able to take advantage of such a huge talent disparity + with Madison Square Garden being a top location for surprising efforts by young unknown but hungry players, I am clearly leaning towards Blazers. Today Bet #40 Toronto Raptors beat LA Clippers Odds 2,05, 1 unit You could wait for VanVleet's game time decision, if he plays. If he does suit up, I would still play Raptors up to Raptors -3 1,95. If he doesnt play, simply play the higher adjusted odds then. Both teams are not that unsimilar in focussing on long athletic wings, making life hard for the opponent on defense. However Toronto does have more talent in those players and more scoring punch. When I have two teams with similar approaches to the game, there is an easier way for me to foresee the result of this game. Both PGs Jackson and VanVleet are banged-up and might or might not play, so this cancels each other out. Clippers lost several games now on the road trip by running into trouble scoring late suddenly. Raptors defense will make that even harder tonight, so it's all about Raptors offense to decide the game. If Raptors simply have an average offensive night shooting from outside, Raptors should win comfortably with 5-8 points difference.

Today Bet #38 New Orleans Pelicans beat Phoenix Suns Odds 2,7, 1 unit Trap Game Line tonight in New Orleans, that's what I call lines which dont make too much sense at first sight and make the public bet the smallish road favorite big. And that's the kind of the games where Bookies make a fortune. Usually that line should be at least Phoenix -7 or something similar ridicolous with the way the Suns have dominated everybody, especially on the road with 14-2 ML record, so they are an automatic bet for the casual bettor. However with McCollum cleared after negative Covid tests and the rest of the Pelicans actually gaining some confidence by playing well in last games without him, getting him back will give them a moral boost in this home game. WIthout CP3 the clutch stats of Suns have to go down and they are due to lose those close games soon, therefore my money is on Pelicans ML to pull out a close victory.

Today Bet #36 Orlando Magic +10,5 cover vs. Brooklyn Nets, Odds 1,9, 1 unit Again we have one of those basement teams Orlando Magic who suddenly started to play better after the All-Star Break. Fatigue of the young guys is a bit less after that break, so they try to show good performances in the last third of the season like the overtime loss vs. 76ers. Tonight it's against the juggernaut Brooklyn Nets who have to conserve some energy to prepare for tomorrows game vs. Dallas. Only Kyrie will be able to go full throttle because he is only allowed in Away games. The Orlando players have shown much more confidence thanks to their recent good games, so if they are not intimidated by the big names, they have all the tools to compete vs. Brooklyn and keep the game within single-digits difference. Today Bet #37 Detroit Pistons +12,5 cover vs. Miami Heat, Odds 2,05, 1 unit Attention: Cade Cunningham is questionable for Detroit, you can wait if he plays or is out before the game. If he is out, I would still play Detroit, but then at higher odds of +13,5 2,05. I will keep riding the Pistons ATS winning streak over the last 3 weeks because the bookies still havent adjusted their power rankings enough to reflect the improved play of them. Tonight 2 main trends face each other: Pistons covering every game in a row for the last 11 games vs. Heat being very successful covering ATS after a loss. One of those trends has to break. As always in those cases, the key is the VALUE question. At this line of +12,5 the value sure lies on the Pistons side because they have shown their fighting spirit time and time again. They might run out of gas late like at Boston, but even then they covered. Anything up to +12 handicap at 1,91 odds is value for Pistons. Heat will be happy to win the game, blowing out the Pistons in a rout sounds excessive to me, regarding Heat's potential. For that too happen they would both have to hit lots of 3s and defend like crazy.

Today Bet #35 LA Clippers beat Cleveland Cavaliers Odds 3,8, 1 unit 1,5 hours left to bet this game, so if you wanna bet this game, be quick to bet it before midnight CET. I didnt want to add this bet but have to now after the odds for the Clippers rose so much. All square bettors think, on back-to-back the Clippers will simply quit. That is possible, however at odds 3,0+ this should still be value with Cavaliers still struggling to score unless Garland goes crazy. Clippers usually have good defenders to deal with Point Guards who dominate the ball, making others have to beat them from outside. Cavaliers do have some shooting but it's less reliable than the penetration into the paint by Garland to score. Ofc, it's more sensible to play Clippers +7,5 1,95 to cover but in this matchup I like Clippers ML because so far this season their clutch stats in games decided by few points has been solid. This bet is a typical odds value play which is done, when odds get too high and where you hope over the long run in a long season it pays off to bet those over-inflated odds.

Today Bet #34 Washington Wizards +11,5 cover vs. Golden State Warriors, Odds 1,95, 1 unit Draymond Green will be back for the Warriors, so there will be some shifting in their rotation, maybe also someone else like Wiggins sitting out. AFter the big win vs. Bucks, maybe it's not the most motivational spot today vs. Wizards, a non-contender. That game vs. Wizards is a classic sandwich spot between two great games vs. bucks and vs. Celtics in 2 days for the Warriors team. It wont be easy for the players and Coach Kerr to show 100% effort today when you know, that a dangerous Celtics team is looming next. Wizards failed miserably at Blazers in the last game and that should have left a bad taste in their mouth. If the Wizards score consistently like in the past weeks, then a 11,5 spread wont be easy for Warriors to cover. That high of a spread would be covered, if Warriors play 100% effort defense. I just dont think, they have the mental attitude tonight in that sandwich spot.

Today Bet #33 Denver Nuggets beat Philadelphia 76ers, Odds 2,15, 1 unit The bet is based on Coach Rivers resting either Harden or Embiid in this back-to-back situation. If you wanna be safe, just wait until line-ups are announced. If Harden sits, Nuggets are value up to 2,0+. If Embiid sits, Nuggets are value up to 1,8+ I do expect Coach Rivers to sit one of them because they are not so keen on getting top seed in the East or 2nd seed in order to avoid Nets in 1st round. Coach Rivers is known in the past to play the seeding game and rest players while tanking for a better playoff matchup when he was with the Clippers. That is for sure a more important game for the Nuggets, who got steamrolled twice now in the 4th quarter in their recent losses which made both Jokic and Coach Malone very angry. Lets see if they can channel that anger into a full game of good basketball. Key to this game is Denver's willingness to punish 76ers by running them off the court with lots of fast break and transition baskets. Morris + Bones Hyland have to run up and down the court to make the tired 76ers legs off the Overtime win in Orlando even more tired.

Today Bet #32 Utah Jazz beat Milwaukee Bucks, Odds 2,05, 1 unit This bet is based on Gobert returning to the lineup and last game he was just sit out bc Kings are poor opponent for rest purposes. If you wanna be safe, wait for official lineups and then play it. With Gobert, the Jazz are value up to 1,85+. Without Gobert, I would simply play at the higher adjusted odds, hopefully sth. like 2,4+ Last time Bucks won at Utah was October 2001, that's 19 games in a row losing in Utah. Sure, Giannis has only been elite for the last 7-8 years, but still that's an amazing statistic. Utah's home advantage ranks highest together with Denver due to the altitude and the crazy home fans. Today, Bucks will get Lopez and Hill back. Especially Lopez is needed because Bobby Portis sucks on defense, but it's not gonna be easy to play well in the first 4-8 games because you can never recreate the game's intensity in practice. Playing at Utah vs. Gobert is an even bigger task for Lopez to deal with. Bucks defense has been horrific lately, also in their clear loss at Warriors, where they also were Road Favorites. They simply let great shooters get open looks. If that continues, they gonna get buried by Conley and Bogdanovic again tonight. This Bucks team is not got enough at the moment to be made road favorites at Utah.

Great win for you, but keep in mind that the more games in multiples, the bigger the edge for the bookmaker becomes. That's why almost every bookie encourages multiples to earn more money. 2 games in a multiple is fine, I would not advise more games in a multiple. Also keep the betting sizes the same all season because NBA Moneyline betting is one of the most volatile ways to bet games. You can easily lose 10 days in a row without problem. If you check the results on the link in my first post on BETTINGADVICE, then you can see that over a lot of picks, bad runs happen quite a lot, so it never makes sense to increase bet size during a season. It was a good idea of you cashing out the Magic ML, because underdogs of higher than 3,2+ in odds in NBA cover more than they win outright. That's why when you got spread of +6 and higher, it's more profitable to bet them spread than on handicap. Therefore always enjoy the profits but never go crazy increasing risk and bet size, so you can withstand the inevitable losing streaks in betting.

Today Bet #29 NY Knicks beat Brooklyn Nets , Odds 3,05, 1 unit Amazing win by Nets in last game vs. 76ers where they were 100% motivated to crush them. Their defense and tenacity was overwhelming and completely destroyed the 76ers offense. However, that playoff intensity is not easy to repeat constantly vs. lower-ranked opponents like the Knicks. Can the Nets do the same and play as hard as they did in last game or will they try to sneak out this win without too much of an effort? That question is 50-50 in my eyes, so with odds above 2,7+ I see enough value to play the Knicks who have continued to battle for last playoff-spot despite all the issues during the season. With Hornets struggling, they could still qualify for play-in and as long as that's the case, we should see top effort by Knicks. Again a bet on Knicks +6 1,95 can be taken for more safer route, because in late-game situations, Knicks have often lost close games lately. But for me it's the high variance play on Knicks ML. Today Bet #30 Dallas Mavericks beat Boston Celtics, Odds 3,15, 1 unit You could wait for Jalen Brunson / Dorian Finney-Smith injury confirmation to be safe, but in the interest of all readers I still post the bet before lineups are officially published. If one or both of them is out, I would lower the stake to 1/2 unit at the adjusted higher odds. However, I do expect the Mavs to play tonight with all main players available because Coach Jason Kidd is already playing the long game with his team, resting them in certain spots to have them fresh for the playoffs, like Brunson and Doncic sitting last week in a single game. Last game vs. Rockets was perfect opportunity for rest and still win the game. Tonight we have marquee matchup vs. the top team in the East after the All-Star Break with the best defense and improved offense. Boston Celtics now play with a tight 8-9 man-rotation, no more experiments for Coach Udoka, that's the team he is relying on for rest of the season. Here the issue: Last game vs. Detroit was a massive playoff-intensity battle where lots of energy was spent. I guarantee that the trainer/physiotherapist had major work to do after that game. With the Celtics embarking on a 4-game road trip in 3 days, that's a game where the Celtics can not be at 100% energy while Mavericks had time and focus to prepare. Sure, the Celtics could continue to play super well, but it's a super hard spot for them to match the Mavericks intensity. If the Mavericks want to send a message on national TV to declare their championship intentions, that's the best spot for them to do so. Today Bet #31 Orlando Magic +11,5 cover vs Philadelphia 76ers , Odds 2,05, 1 unit You could wait for Mo Bamba/ Markelle Fultz injury confirmation to be safe, but in the interest of all readers I still post the bet before lineups are officially published. If one of them is out, I would lower the stake to 0,5 units. Markelle Fultz comeback story has been very successful so far with him appearing in games and Orlando automatically being competitive with 3 wins and 4 losses in his 7 games since return, which is much better than the rest of the season so far for the Magic. It's because now the bench minutes for Magic are better in playmaking vs. the back-ups of the other team. Tonight I expect the same with him out-playing Shake Milton and keeping that game close. Sure, the 76ers could bounce-back after the joke loss to Nets, but 11,5 points is a ton to cover and if the Magic have Fultz and Bamba ready, I dont see the 76ers having such a huge advantage tonight.