Sunflake

Main event day 3 Yesterday did not go as expected, havent seen Empire - EG yet but that result was suprising and VP looked very very strong. Also i thought my team secret bet would kick in since they won first game. TNC OG BO2 TNC to win 2,55 €50,00 Rematch from last year but OG has a different team. I think OG wont do the same mistake as last year but TNC plays with their hearts and pure agro so i think its value for the odds. LGD DC BO2 LGD to win 2-0 1,85 €50,00 Even if LGD lost yesterday, i still see them as a better team and DC has been looking impressive from time to time but i think they go out this round. Newbee IG BO2 Newbee to win 2-0 2,6 €50,00 Woul bet draw if i could but good oods for Newbee taking it 2-0 LFY VP BO2 LFY to win 2-0 3 €50,00 A mentioned before, VP played really really well yesterday but so did LFY. In fact i would say LFY have been more impressive and consistant. This game can go any way so its a risky bet but i think 3 in odds is great for a team like LFY.

I bet on EG to win 2-0 vs Empire for 1,65 (highly likely)

Main event day 2 Short prediction today since im busy tonight. Profit occurs yesterday even if i lost 2 BO1 (was expected). Chinese teams were stronger than people thought and i think this will be the trend today aswell. My first two bets are pretty risky but pretty sure at least one of them will happen. Good odds on Secret to win and i see Liquid and Secret being pretty even for the moment. LFY TNC BO3 LFY to win 2-0 2 €50,00 LGD VP BO3 LGD to win 2-0 3,2 €50,00 Team Liquid Team Secret BO3 Team Secret to win 2,95 €50,00 EG Team Empire BO3 No good odds for the moment, might add a bet later on. €0,00

Main event, day one. For the moment im in profitville but only 50€. Here are my bets for tomorrow, most are yolos and the reasoning behind it is that its many BO1s, anything can happen then and you get no second chances. Team Liquid IG BO3 Over 2,5 games played 2,1 €50,00 I put TL as favorite 70/30 but i really think IG can take a game from them. Better odds for more than 2,5 games than asian handicap. Newbee EG BO3 Over 2,5 games played 1,95 €50,00 Even more even here than the game above so if you want to choose one bet, go for this one since i see this really going into three games by looking at how they have been playing Team Secret Exec BO1 Exec to win 2,95 €50,00 I think this game is more even than most think. The Pinoys can suprise any team including Secret. C9 Team Empire BO1 Team Empire to win 2,05 €50,00 This can go either way. C9 plays fun and risky dota and Empire plays risky aswell. Its a coinflip and then i go will Empire because i think Reso is a better carry than fiftEE. OG Infamous BO1 Infamous to win 3,3 €50,00 Both OG and Infamous has had their shining points and now they are all in. Going Infamous for the odds since the peruvians can win against any team and im s ure they would like to beat out the major masters. IGV DC BO1 DC to win 2,05 €50,00 DC played better in the end of the groupstages and IGV is very inconsistant. This bet could be avoided but i believe in the mixed team rather than the worst chinese team (they are still good tho)

Round 3 Cloud 9 vs Hr Cloud 9 seems to be winning 2-0 vs DC for the moment. This means HR is out of main event so the game does not mean anything for them. IFor C9 it means better seeding C9 to win 1,75 in odds €50 Newbee vs DC I do not thin any of the teams has anything to really play for except DCs seeding (DC has to win vs NB and OG has to lose all games). Still think the odds are good for NB and DC was underperforming vs C9 (lost that bet) Newbee to win for 1,9 €50 OG vs LFY LFY has nothing to play for, OG has. OG to win, 3,25 €50 VP vs IG Important game for both and i see them as even. I can see IG taking a game from VP but not more. +1,5 on IG (win at least one game for odds 1,53 €50

Day 4 Went good yesterday 10 wins out of 19 games and €227,75 profit. For how the groups can go, i refer to this post Also, please make your own analysis since what im stating below abotu seeding might get incorrect sometimes. Round 1 C9 vs DC Tie C9 needs to win at least 3 games to get to main event and they meet HR later on. I think they can snatch a game from DC and then they win vs HR. DC needs to win all of their games and hope VP and Newbee atl east losing 2 so i think they are set where they are Betting tie 1-1 for 1,95 €50 IG vs HR IG needs to win 2-0 to get into a tiebreaker with OG losing one game. I see this as a possiblity, also HR has a chance but they are looking very slim. IG to win for 1,45 €50 Newbee vs VP Tie I see these teams as very even in the groupstage To quote the link above "Newbee and VP both can ensure their UB if they win all of their games, 3 wins would ensure them at least a tiebreaker for 4th place, maybe higher". Betting tie 1-1 for 2 in odds €50 OG vs Exec Exec has a very very low chance to go into tiebreaker vs HR but i do not see it happening. OG will need to win this and i believe they will even if Exec could take a map of OG. Could avodi this bet. OG to win 1,53 €50 Will editting this post once i put in more bets. You can find my spreadsheet here Round 2 EG vs Fnatic Watch the link above for potential outcome, i think EG has this one easy. EG to win 2-0 1,45 €50 LGD vs TNC TNC has to win at least one game to be guarantee UB and i think they can do it vs LGD. TNC played great yesterday and better odds on tie than +1,5. Tie for odds 2 €50 Team Liquid vs Team Secret I give slight edge to Liquid. Will either end in a win for Liquid or tie but its hard to say, could avoid this one aswell. Tie for 2,15 €50

Day 3 round 5 My heart hurts irl so ill be short so i can watch the games from bed. EG LGD BO2 LGD to win 2-0 5 €50,00 Value bet, LGD can beat EG (same thought as OG vs IG but that did not go through this time) IGV Fnatic BO2 IGV to win 2-0 2,5 €50,00 Fnatic plays bad, IGV is holding megas vs Empire for the moment... Should be an easy 2-0 Team Liquid Team Empire BO2 Team Liquid to win 1,61 $50,00 TNC took a game off Liquid, not sure if this was a great bet i did since if TNC can take a game of TL, so can Empire but i believe in my water boys TNC Infamous BO2 TNC to win 1,57 $50,00 TNC should have this

C9 Exec BO2 Exec to win at least one 1,9 €25,00 Important game for both to not get 9th, HR who is last for the moment went 1-1 vs exec and havent met C9 yet. i think exec has one of these games. LFY DC BO2 LFY to win 1,8 €50,00 LFY looks superstrong, glad i predicted before TI7 to end up top2. Not much of a analysis that has to be made, just check them play dota. Newbee HR BO2 Newbee to win 1,5 €50,00 See my LGD vs infamous bet above, should be an easy 2-0. OG IG BO2 IG to win 5,5 €50,00 Hardest bet this game but i think the odds are skewed towards OG because they are from the western sceene and IG is from asia. IF IG wins vs C9, both OG and IG are 6-4 in the group at the 4th and 5th place so both teams will try hard but i rather bet on IG due to the odds. This is also an imporant descision coming into day 4. OG is meeting exen and LFY. IG will only meet VP so the result of this game is even more important for IG since they can only get 2 more points tomorrow, OG can get four.

Day 3 round 3 Team Liquid TNC BO2 Liquid to win 2,37 €50,00 Liquid looks great this tourny and giving these odds for a win is a bargain. Raven and KUKU might take one game from them but not two but x2 bet is superlow so i think this is valuetown EG Infamous BO2 Infamous to win at least one 3,4 €25,00 EG is looking strong but Infamous has been winning a map from better teams. EG also has RTZ who has not been looking impressive and they often underestimate their opponent. Skip or go for a low yolobet. IGV Team Empire BO2 IGV to win 2-0 2,37 €50,00 My argument for this bet is that Empire loost 0-2 vs LGD, IGV won 2-0 vs LGD. Could get risk if the Empire strikes back the second game

Feel sorry for your buddy, you will win it back with LFY. They look strong

Day 3 round 2 Exec DC BO2 Exec to win 5 odds €25,00 Both teams has not been playing that well but XntC has been showing hope against most teams with at least winning 1 game. Betting small because i think this pays off in the long run IG C9 BO2 IG to win 2,95 odds €25,00 IG has more discipline and C9 is well C9... In favour of IG to win since chinese dota seems to be the thing this TI7 plus C9 is rockbottom in group stage Newbee LFY BO2 LFY to win 3,25 odds €50,00 Hard game to b et on. Both teams are very good but LFY has played 2 more maps than Newbe and has not dropped a single match. Cannot say no to these odds when newbee is down 2 games (6-2).

Day 3 Yesterday was a red day, lost alot of bets due to VP. They were weak early during the day but decided to become the VP we know and love vs OG which made me lose alot. I hope it will get better today and i feel more confident today so that means im raise the bet amount. Please note bet what you are comfortable of losing. Won 5, lost 12 yesterday -245,25 euro yesterday, -19,25 euro in total of the bankroll so we are back where we started from. Team Secret vs EG EG looked better yesterday but so did Team Secret. Important matchup to decide seeding in the groups so none of the teams will hold back but i think the safest bet here is a tie Bet draw for 2,05 €50 Fnatic vs Empire This game is important for both teams, its a fight for place 8 and 9 and the prizepool differ alot (60k USD vs 120K USD). Empire seems to be the slight favour odds wise but i think they look way stronger. Bet Team Empire to win 2-0 for 3,1 €50 euro LGD vs Infamous Infamous been taking games from some teams but i highly doubt they will take one from LGD. LGD looks good yesterday and i believe they will win it and try to go for a top seed. Bet LGD to win 2-0 for 1,55 €50 TNC vs IGV Honestly, could be any teams game here so this is a risky bet. IGV is the underdog so i think its worth betting on them this game since they won against LGD yesterday and TNC threw HARD versus Team Secret with 3 buybacks on core. It will either be a tie or IGV win so im going to valuetown and betting small. Bet IGV to win 2-0 for 4,20 €25 I'll update the post later will more predictions on later rounds. Today is ours!

Nice to hear, hope you win some and you seemed to win abit yesterday

Round 5 OG vs VP VP has been a disappointed so far in the groupstages, their golden last months is nonexistant. Weird draft vs C9 which not did much while ramzez was farming and they ran into a 5 man dreamcoil and medusa ult. Seems to be playing with their feelings.OG o nthe other h and is looking better today, taking one game from Newbee and just won vs HR. I see LFY and Newbee as the best asian teams at the moment. (Making this bet after game one VP vs C9). Also 4 in odds for OG to win, i feel there is a value here since VP has been udnerperforming and OG seems to play better today than yesterday (VP has 3 in odds). OG to win 2-0 4 in odds, €50 LFY vs C9 Abusing the fact that C9 won game 1 vs VP. C9 seems to be playing better today rather than yesterday but for the moment, LFY and VP is uncomparable. As stated above, LFY seems to be going far in this tournament with the way they are playing. One of these bets has to get in there. LFY to win 2-0 2,61 odds €50

Round four Been incorrect with some bets today but hope i can turn it around on this round. If i win any one of these bets, im at least break even and i dont feel they are yolobets. Infamous vs Fnatic Fnatic have not won one single game and is last in the group, Infamous has played 1-1 at best and is in the middle of the seeding battle. I think this game is more important for Infamous than Fnatic and they have played better so far. Hope for an AM pick both games Infamous to win 2-0, 5 in odds €25 euro Team Secret vs IGV Hard for the moment to predict which chinese team is strongest but i do know IGV is stronger than Secret in more than 1 out of 5 games. Secret won game 1 vs TNC (lost that bet) but that was more about TNC not being able to siege well rather than Secret playing good. This game or the one above should get in there most of the times. IGV to win 2-0, 5 in odds €25 euro Team Liquid vs LGD Might be a even game but i believe Liquid has a stronger playerbase. LGD lost vs IGV since i feel any chinese team can beat any chinese team. In this case i feel like Liquid should win it Liquid to win 2-0, 3 in odds €25 euro