ZPUN Posted 10 March, 2022 Share Posted 10 March, 2022 Credit: Most of this data is from Tracksino and raw mathematics from Wizard of Odds. Big thanks to those two sources. Crazy Time is a live game offered by Evolution Gaming that involves making wagers based on a wheel a host spins. I’m sure most of you are familiar with it, and wonder if the provided RTP is accurate or not, what are the probabilities of a bonus generating it’s base wins, how often the top slot generates high multipliers etc. Calculating the odds and RTP of the base game is quite simple. Assuming enough RNG through the act of spinning, you can simply count the total number of slices on the wheel, count the number of each space and simply divide. But Crazy Time has a significant amount of invisible RNG that cannot simply be readily calculated. The combination of the Top Slot, the multipliers in Coin Flip, the boards in Cash Hunt, the base multipliers in Pachinko, and finally, the boards and outcome of the Crazy Time wheel. Evolution is very secretive of the inner workings of these generators and outside of an overall RTP they provide, they do not show their hand. Except if you record enough data, capture enough of a sample, using some math we can very closely estimate what those probabilities are. So let's start. Top Slot Modifier This is the first bit of computer RNG that happens right at a game start, and with enough sample size we start to see a very consistent pattern emerge in how this outcome is determined Takeaways: The slot’s winning symbol and the multiplier are not uniformly distributed, meaning the symbol itself has an impact on what multiplier is rolled. This might not be surprising to many and does make sense from a mathematical standpoint given that if the distribution was even, a bet on something like $10 would have a significantly higher return than a bet on 1$ with Top Slot. Evolution knows this. So, they equalize the distribution a bit. Another interesting note is while the multiplier distribution is anything but even, the symbol distribution between symbols is much closer to being. And the symbol with the highest probability of landing is Crazy Time with 15.94% adjusted odds. However, Crazy Time is also the symbol with the highest chance of landing a 1x miss at 3.578% (next is Coin Flip at 3.029%). Also if you’re curious what the odds of the Top Slot being 50x Crazy Time, it seems to be around 1 in 5881 spins (0.017%), but that wasn’t even the least likely reel pairing. The winner of that award is 50x Cash Hunt at a cool 1 in 9090 spins (0.011%). Coin Flip Coin Flip is a relatively simple game to estimate based on a good sampling. Based on what I see, the game operates with 2 generated “wins”. A “lower” win, and a “higher” win. This should be obvious to anyone who’s played this bonus, and once we know this we can estimate probabilities. Takeaways: Lower wins are always between 2x-5x, and higher wins are always between 7x-100x. The lower win side’s distribution is slightly weighted more towards 2x and 3x than 4x or 5x, and the higher win side’s distribution is weighted evenly through 7x-15x, and proceeds to drop off somewhat exponentially 20x, 25x, 50x, 100x. No real surprises here. The odds of seeing a 100x in a coin flip at around 1 in 127 bonuses (0.78%). 50x at around 1 in 17 bonuses (5.47%). Cash Hunt Cash Hunt seemed like a complex game to calculate but it was actually the easiest out of all of the bonuses. There are only 3 boards possible. And each board always had the same count of each multiplier type, only the positions shift. Board 1 has 9 “x100” wins, board 2 has 1 “x500” win, and board 3 has 1 “x100” win. Takeaway: The boards themselves don’t change, but the frequency they appear are not uniform. Board 1 (9 x100) shows up 40% of the time, Board 2 (1 x500) is rarest showing up 10%, and Board 3 (1 x100) is most common, filling in at 50%. Average win for each is 19.47x, 19.96x, 19.36x respectively. Pachinko This one is a fun one, and besides Crazy Time is definitely one of the swingiest games they offer. There are 16 slots on each pachinko board, and each slot seems to be independently generated from another (with 1 apparent caveat, read on). This is different from Cash Hunt, there are no static boards. Each game is unique Takeaways: Unsurprisingly, the distribution of the base win multiplier is not equally distributed. 7x and 10x wins are by-far the most common roll at a combined 45.32% chance, and probability falls off either side of the curve, including lower amounts like 2x and 3x, which have 2.34% and 3.13% respectively. There’s a 1 in 63 chance (1.56%) that a space is 100x, and 1 in 127 chance (0.78%) that it’s 200x. Remember this is per SPACE, not game. So the odds of seeing a 100x in a game is actually about 1 in 4. Also around 1 in 8 for 200x. Neat. Interestingly, the calculated odds that a space is Double is seemingly 1 in 17 (5.47%), however given this is clearly an outlier I’m suspecting that the rules for Double spaces are not treated the same as any other space. It’s likely there is a weighted component to this space ie. a higher chance to get a double space with 0, and significantly less with > 0. Also if you’re curious, assuming true independently generated spaces, the odds that every space is 200x base is 1.8772134 x10^34 odds. So I wouldn’t count on it in this universe's lifetime at least. The Crazy Time bonus seems to be very hard to properly estimate, and I don't believe there is enough of a sample out there to make determinations. But it seems like the "boards" on Crazy Time are not static, and are uniquely generated. I could be wrong here, I'm willing to look into it further. And that's it. I've tried to make sure the info here is accurate but if there's any correction or something is wrong then please let me know. This really isn't meant to be a way of "beating" Crazy Time so please don't take this as such. It's more for curiosity sake. 1 Quote Link to comment

dagreenblazer Posted 12 March, 2022 Share Posted 12 March, 2022 Yo dude, i love that Wizard of Odds site too and is all great info thanks - i found it most interesting to discover that for No. 10 the topslot multi distribution is tweaked so that 10 stays within their desired RTP, and certainly is a shame Evo haven't left any obvious mathematical holes in their game design! Quote Link to comment

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