NBA bets after All-Star Break until end of regular season and maybe playoffs

[Shane Yeung]

got a multibet on the knicks + golden state. lets see how they perform today

[biggestdosser]

Today Bet #53 Oklahoma City Thunder beat Orlando Magic, Odds 2,25, 1 unit

Just watched the Magic fighting hard with lots of passion at home to beat Warriors. They got very very lucky to win this game thanks to joke turnovers by Golden State and stupid fouls in 4th quarter. Orlando still is limited in creating shots and they shoot extremely poorly from 3-point range.

But main reason I fade them is the high probability that Fultz is sitting out again the 2nd game of a back-to-back to protect his body. He was the main reason that Orlando rallied to win the game. With him out, Magic get much worse and OKC has a great chance to win that game.

Unfortunately Shai sits out due to ankle soreness, but I still see OKC as more hungry tonight vs. a happy Magic team after surprise win vs. Warriors. I cant see Orlando putting up the same energy vs. OKC the day after. Wendell Carter is out for Orlando, he has been a great player for them over the last 3-4 games. 

Today Bet #54 Houston Rockets +9,5 cover vs. Dallas Mavericks, Odds 2,05, 1 unit

Mavericks rest Luka today in order to be ready for the next game at Minnesota, which will be a revenge spot after that very heated last game with lots of questionable calls and fouls late in the game.

Against Houston, there is a great chance that Dinwiddie, Brunson and Powell can win that game by themselves. Add in Bullock and Finney-Smith and this Mavs team is on paper still a lot better than Rockets.

However, that Rockets team is very streaky because of all their 3-point shooting. The Mavericks had a long time a very good 3-point defense, but over the last 6-7 games that has changed, both in number of 3-point attempts as in success for the opponent.

Maybe it's fatigue, maybe it's lack of motivation, but if that trend continues that the Mavs are not one of the best 3-point defending teams in the league, Rockets hit enough 3s to keep the game close and cover.

[biggestdosser]

Today Bet #55 LA Clippers beat Philadelphia 76ers, Odds 2,75, 1 unit

Clippers on a bad losing streak while 76ers have won their last game at Lakers without LeBron. However 76ers have played quite a lot of games lately and with the hotel stay at Los Angeles, I would expect several Philly guys to party instead of resting over the last 2 nights.

The more games you lose in the NBA, the more determined you become to stop the losing streak. Their last loss at Nuggets was actually not terrible, they just ran into a very good Nuggets team with great home advantage.

I do expect an easier game for the Clippers tonight, fresher and much more rested than 76ers and they will try to push the tempo right from the start. I am expecting a 100% effort by the Clippers, while I am unsure how motivated and fresh the 76ers are for this game. 

[biggestdosser]

Today Bet #56 Washington Wizards beat Golden State Warriors, Odds 3,35, 1 unit

Coach Kerr still wants to practice different line-ups to prepare for the playoffs. While using those line-ups there are some which work well and some which simply suck. The result is secondary importance, it's more vital to him to find good combinations.

Wizards have decided to start Satoransky, a good decisions because he is better than Neto. With that change, the balance in the starting five of the Wizards has become better. Maybe now Porzingis can continue his better play.

Two teams who still have to try things out, that sounds like quite an experiment where anything can happen, thats why I like Wizards as big underdogs because their opponent is not focused primarily on winning. 

Today Bet #57 Charlotte Hornets beat Brooklyn Nets, Odds 3,25, 1 unit

Everybody proclaiming Nets already as a top favorite should be cognizant, that the defense is still a work in progress, especially while Simmonds is still out. Now they return after their big win at Miami and can now play with Kyrie in home games.

Now in my estimation, the offense skillz of Nets make defense very hard, but if you have good enough offense, you can make it a game vs. them. I hope that Hornets can continue with their pace and use the zone defense to at least make life a bit harder than usual for Nets to win.

Hornets have performed well this season when having rest advantage vs. the opponent at 10-7-1 ATS while Nets are 3-8-1 with no rest. You can play Hornets +6,5 to be safer, but tonight I will play both dogs ML and hoping one of them will win for profit. 

[biggestdosser]

Today Bet #58 Orlando Magic +9,5 cover vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, Odds 2,0, 1 unit

I dont agree with this line because the Cavaliers injuries have made this team quite a bit tired over the last couple of weeks. They continue to fight to grind out games, but making them huge favorites to cover those lines, looks very hard to me with the limited amount of quality players.

For the last 19 games, they havent won by double-digits, even against bad opponents like Wizards. Orlando is a bad team, but not as tanking like Blazers. Whenever it's not a back-to-back situation, Markelle Fultz plays = better chances for Magic to cover. It looks as if Carter Jr. returns tonight, which would be a top boost for Magic.

It's simple with Orlando, their starting five loses points, then the bench unit around Fultz rallies, that happens constantly and leads to close losses. Tonight those +9,5 points should be enough for Magic to cover when we repeat that same pattern.

Today Bet #59 Sacramento Kings +13,5 cover vs. Miami Heat, Odds 1,95, 1 unit

Heat shouldnt be that big of a favorite vs. ANY team right now, because their offense and 3-point shooting has absolutely going down in flames. Nobody seems to hit a shot + the defense also slipped. The Butler fiasco with coach Spoelstra and Haslem is just the icing on the cake.

Kings coach Gentry wont return next season, so he has no reason to tank, he wont benefit from a high pick anyways. What he can do, is playing hard with all the players he has left and win a few more games on his coaching resume to possibly get a good new job next year.

Until Miami shows me, that they have regained their shooting stroke + consistent defensive effort, I will fade them anytime they have to cover more than 9 points vs. any team besides Blazers. 

[biggestdosser]

Today Bet #60 LA Lakers +11,5 cover vs. Dallas Mavericks, Odds 1,95, 1 unit

Bookies assume LeBron is out tonight and I agree. If you can wait until lineups are announced, you can expect the odds even getting a little higher then if you are patient. Anyways I like the Lakers to cover tonight because despite the injury, the rest of the team has looked a little bit better over the last few games.

It's not pretty, but the Lakers have worked ok now with Howard and Gabriel together, having a bit more size, that could help with the rebounding vs. smallish Mavs team and force Kidd to play bigger than he wants to. 

Also vs. 76ers the team played hard until last second, that makes backdoor covers more probable when you got big lines to cover like tonight. Mavs are also not an offensive juggernaut, winning games by 30+ often. 

Despite LeBron out, Lakers are competently coached by Vogel who has seen improvement, so the line is just too high tonight, the Lakers without LEBron are not one of the 4-5 worst teams in the league. 

[biggestdosser]

Today Bet #61 Cleveland Cavaliers beat Dallas Mavericks, Odds 2,15, 1 unit

Tonight I have 2 bets which have been moved by wise-guy money. I wish I had played especially Warriors earlier, because it was my favorite lean, but ok, that happens. Late in the season, there are always questionable motivational spots, so often the lines dont make much sense at first sight.

Now Cavs have lost even more playing quality with Mobley out. Dinwiddie sits out for the Mavs. Coach Kidd will again try to win this game while giving one of his players some extra rest for the playoffs. He knows that rest > home advantage in the playoffs.

Cavs have been a covering machine for almost all of the season. Especially at home they are not willing to give up games. If Mavs are only semi-motivated tonight, look for Cavs to again sneak out a close game at home.

Today Bet #62 Golden State Warriors beat Phoenix Suns, Odds 2,65, 1 unit

Unfortunately I didnt play Warrriors earlier today at 3,0+ odds, but wise-guys pumped a ton of money on the Warriors, due to 2 reasons. Both are enough for me to play Warriors tonight.

1. Suns basically have already clinched no.1 spot in the nba + home advantage for all season, so nothing to play for left.

2. Warriors match up the best among all nba teams vs. Suns because they are ok with their playing style and defending it. On the other hand, Suns have more work to do, defending the Warriors, when their motion offense gets going. It's not as easy as stopping a one dominant scorer type of team.

Today Bet #63 Oklahoma City Thunder +12,5 cover vs. Atlanta Hawks, Odds 2,0, 1 unit

Attention: Tre Mann is still questionable, if he plays, it's an even better bet. If not, you will get even better odds. If you can wait for line-ups, do so.

Hawks are strong at home, but stink on the road, that has been the main topic all season. With Galinari and Collins out, their margin for error goes down.

OKC has been top in the league in covering ATS because they get so huge spreads which their opponents cant cover late in the game because Thunder play hard until the end.

Even without Tre Mann, they managed to win at Blazers. He will be missed, if OKC wants to tank, but the rest is still capable enough, that they can always close the gap late in the game to cover +12,5.

[biggestdosser]

Today Bet #64 Oklahoma City Thunder beat Detroit Pistons, Odds 2,65, 1 unit

Super dangerous spot for Pistons, after winning vs. 76ers in a very emotional match, they need to be ready on the back-to-back as a favorite travelling to OKC.

Olynyk and Bagley are two casualties of that trip, both out and who knows how tired the others feel after a super inspiring effort vs. Harden and Embiid. Suddenly they are now on the road facing a team full of unknown OKC players.

OKC thunder roster is now absolutely barren with even Tre Mann out. However, Pistons team is still too young and inexperienced to easily crush those bad teams on the road. Value should be on OKC when Pistons cant yet be trusted as favorites. 

Today Bet #65 Minnesota Timberwolves beat Denver Nuggets, Odds 2,35, 1 unit

 

Fade spot for the Nuggets who were on a road trip where they got wins, but they really had to work hard vs. really poor teams to get the wins. I am not happy about their performances lately and those wins were not convincing at all.

Timberwolves ran into the Raptors in last game where I bet on the Raptors because of their length to bother them. Against Denver it will be a much easier life for the Timberwolves to get their shots off and score. 

Give me Minnesota to stop the 2-game losing streak with a good offensive effort especially from 3-point land. Whenever you have 2 playoff teams of similar caliber playing each other in regular season, I always back the team on a losing streak because of their higher motivation to stop the rut.

[biggestdosser]

Today Bet #66 Charlotte Hornets beat Philadelphia 76ers, Odds 2,85, 1 unit

With Coach Rivers criticizing Harden, I would expect Harden to say his hamstring is bad again and sitting out. That would mean that again Embiid has to shoulder all responsibility, not the best circumstances for a good effort.

Sure that could be enough to still beat the Hornets, but with 76ers not really caring where they land in the seedings because of wanting to avoid Nets subconciously, they will be ok being somewhere in 3-6th seeding spot. Being 2nd or 1st would be a danger for facing Nets when they win their play-in game.

Hornets play their usual style, running like crazy and playing zone defense. Versus a semi-motivated philly team which might play only at half effort and doesnt want to run back on defense, their winning percentage should be closer to 40% = 2,5 fair odds. Anything 2,5+ odds is worth betting for me. 

[biggestdosser]

Today Bet #67 Atlanta Hawks beat Brooklyn Nets, Odds 2,15, 1 unit

If you want to beat the Brooklyn Nets, you need to punish their holes in the defense. Durant and Irving can score with the best, but the defense is a disaster and they allow too many open shots and lay-ups.

Atlanta has its flaws but at home they can score with the best of them, having a very high offensive rating over the last 5 games. Bruce Brown will try to slow Trae Young down, but he will use the pick-and roll to get Drummond constantly involved which will lead to breakdowns in defense of Nets.

Nets always get the best effort from their opponents and with Atlanta being quite a force at home, I side with Atlanta Hawks tonight.

Today Bet #68 Golden State Warriors beat Utah Jazz, Odds 2,15, 1 unit

for both teams it's a key game for playoff position. Both teams have been losing lots of games lately, due to injury and bad teamplay. Despite Jazz winning and Warriors losing last game, I do see a higher improvement for Warriors.

Against the best team Phoenix Suns,  the Warriors were able to keep the game close all game and really found solutions against the mobile Suns defense and fought hard to defend them. Just a repeat of that performance will be enough to beat Utah.

Jazz defense despite Rudy Gobert back, got roasted quite a bit by the bad lakers without LeBron and AD. They won the game easy thanks to multiple Lakers defense breakdowns. If Draymond Green can orchester the defense better like in last game, then Jazz will have much tougher time to score today, making Warriors the favorites tonight to win.

[Shane Yeung]

raptors or the heat today?

[biggestdosser]

3 hours ago, Shane Yeung said:

raptors or the heat today?

Neither, anything Raptors -3 to -4 is a perfect line, impossible to find an edge here. 

[biggestdosser]

Today Bet #69 New Orleans Pelicans beat LA Clippers, Odds 2,25, 1 unit

This game is gonna be decided by motivation to improve playoff position. The Clippers have the 8th spot as good as clinched. Sure they could get overtaken theoretically by Pelicans but that's quite a longshot with so few games left.

Pelicans had a huge win at Lakers just a night ago where they made a huge improvement on their chances to clinch the 9th spot and having home court advantage for the first play-in game. 

So now the question is, who will play harder tonight? For me it's the Pelicans, if all players are playing. That Pelicans full starting line-up is actually a top-4 lineup when healthy. I would advise to wait until line-ups are confirmed and if all is well for Pelicans, they are my favorite to win tonight. 

[biggestdosser]

Today Bet #70 Charlotte Hornets beat Miami Heat, Odds 2,85, 1 unit

Heat have been the righting the ship with some close wins on the road at Celtics and Raptors, however they could have easily lost those games and stared at a long losing week instead. 

Suddenly they feel again that they have righted the ship and can win the East again. I am not so convinced that this Heat team is as dominant as they appear to be, especially as big favorites.

Hornets are an interesting team to bet on because their confusing results go in both directions, they can win vs. top teams but also get absolutely crushed. They have performed well after losing games ATS, going 21-14 in the game after.

That Heat team strikes me as being fat and happy after the successful road trip and sleeping in the first half of this game back in Miami. You could bet Hornets first half as a decent bet to lower the risk of Heat waking up in the 2nd half, but I will simply play Hornets ML full game for bigger odds.

 

[biggestdosser]

Today Bet #71 Portland TrailBlazers beat Oklahoma City Thunder, Odds 2,65, 1 unit

It is a very tactical bet, because both teams actually want to lose in order to better their draft lottery chances. The question, who wants to lose less than the other?

I like Portland tonight, because OKC had a great win vs. Phoenix and that is probably one win too much for them now in their standings. No need to risk improving the winning record in order to give Pacers a chance to catch them for 4th worst record for best chances in draft lottery.

Blazers team is horrible, but if OKC doesnt try hard enough, they are not much worse than them. In those tanking battles, always go with the value underdog ML which pays big if the OKC tanking reigns supreme. 

[biggestdosser]

Today Bet #72 Detroit Pistons beat Milwaukee Bucks, Odds 2,85, 1 unit

Bucks will rest probably all their stars on the back-to-back after tough game vs. Celtics. The rest of the Bucks is really struggling to defend and score at an decent NBA level.

Pistons lost last game vs. Dallas, but the result looked worse than the whole game. Only in the end, the lead got too huge. Agains a non-100% Bucks team, the Pistons will have all chances to win this game. Also it wont matter that they win that game for draft lottery because they are 2 wins behind the next team, so they are not forced to lose!

[biggestdosser]

This last weekend of NBA is filled with pretty crazy results, so I will today take the 3 dogs who have a realistic shot to win and personally also use them in 3 2-team parlays, hoping for 2 teams winning outright for big payouts. Thats my personal strategy, so no financial advice, but high variance plays this weekend are the call for me.

Today Bet #73 New Orleans Pelicans beat Memphis Grizzlies, Odds 3,15, 1 unit

It's a bet on the look of the Memphis Grizzlies during the last 2 games at Utah and at Denver. Sure the altitude played a role, but several of the players like Desmond Bane and Tyus Jones looked much more tired and less energetic than in the past 2 months. If I were coach Jenkins, I would surely think about resting more players tonight in a meaningless game.

Pelicans can improve their play-in positioning with a win and secure the 9th seed. Ingram is questionable and probably wont play but the rest of the team has been playing very decently over the last couple of weeks. If Grizzlies are not close to 100% effort and players are rested, it will be a closer game than expected.

Today Bet #74 San Antonio Spurs beat Golden State Warriors, Odds 2,95, 1 unit

Everybody crowning the Warriors already as the clear 3rd seed of the West with a big chance to advance to Western Conference finals. I admit that their offense gets more and more clicking with every game despite Curry out. However their defense still isnt clicking like early in the season, proven by the good shots the Lakers generated in last match.

Spurs have been covering many games lately because of bookies still underestamating them with Murray out. Tre Jones has proven to be a different kind of PG, who has different strengths. Coach Pop wasnt intentionally trying to make the play-in but his team simply played to well to tank, so today he will again simply let his team play and see what happens. With the Spurs not tanking, this game is much closer than bookies expect. 

Today Bet #75 Sacramento Kings beat LA Clippers, Odds 6,85, 1 unit

For Coach Alvin Gentry those will be his last 2 head coach games, because after this sad season we should finally see Kings legend Doug Christie get the chance to lead the Kings team into a new era. So there is no reason for him to tank because he wont be there to earn the benefits of a higher pick.

Clippers will simply try lineups for the play-ins and use this game to practice and not really caring about the end result. More important is keeping everyone healthy and in good spirits. With their motivation questionable, any bet on the Kings is recommended. Betting Kings +11,5 is totally fine but with this being the last nba weekend, I could see more shock results happen. 

[biggestdosser]

Today Bet #76 New Orleans Pelicans +10,5 cover vs. Phoenix Suns, Odds 2,0, 1 unit

Game 1 tonight is the biggest advantage for the teams who got through the play-in games. They are ready for the intensity, while the big favorites are trying to get their rust off. Look for Pelicans to continue playing hard and making it tough for Suns to win big. Even a surprise win is possible, so if you wanna bet Pelicans ML at 5,9+ that's fine as well, but I bet +10,5 because the Suns wont be at 100% in Game 1. 

[biggestdosser]

Today Bet #77 Toronto Raptors +7,5 cover vs. Philadelphia 76ers Game 2, Odds 1,95, 1 unit

Raptors with injury issues, but they do have a bit of depth on the team which will help mitigate the risk of losing too much quality tonight. 76ers played fantastically in Game 1, not easy to repeat the same efficiency numbers.

Coach Nurse talked lots about the referees last game, lets see if they continue to give Embiid free reign to bowl everyone over or if refs choose to listen to Coach Nurse. In the end I see lots of ways Philly will be worse tonight than in last game, so a close game is more probable than the bookies and public expect. I trust in Coach Nurse to make good adjustments.